Critics – including senior Israeli officials who have shied from saying so publicly – maintain Obama is repeating the same mistakes of predecessors whose calls for human rights and democracy in the Middle East have often backfired by bringing anti-West regimes to power. Israeli officials, while refraining from open criticism of Obama, have made no secret of their view that shunning Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and pushing for swift elections in Egypt could bring unintended results. "I don't think the Americans understand yet the disaster they have pushed the Middle East into," said lawmaker Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who until recently was a Cabinet minister and who is a longtime friend of Mubarak. "If there are elections like the Americans want, I wouldn't be surprised if the Muslim Brotherhood didn't win a majority, it would win half of the seats in parliament," he told Army Radio. "It will be a new Middle East, extremist radical Islam." Three decades ago, President Jimmy Carter urged another staunch American ally – the shah of Iran – to loosen his grip on power, only to see his autocratic regime replaced by the Islamic Republic. More recently, U.S.-supported elections have strengthened such groups as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories and anti-American radicals in Iran. "Jimmy Carter will go down in American history as 'the president who lost Iran,'" the analyst Aluf Benn wrote in the daily Haaretz this week. "Barack Obama will be remembered as the president who 'lost' Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt, and during whose tenure America's alliances in the Middle East crumbled," Benn wrote. Israel has tremendous respect for Mubarak, who carefully honored his country's peace agreement with Israel after taking power nearly 30 years ago. While relations were often cool, Mubarak maintained a stable situation that has allowed Israel to greatly reduce its military spending and troop presence along the border with Egypt. He also worked with Israel to contain the Gaza Strip's Hamas government and served as a bridge to the broader Arab world. Israeli leaders have said it is essential that whoever emerges as Egypt's next leader continue to honor the peace agreement. In the course of the turmoil, the Obama administration has repeatedly recalibrated its posture, initially expressing confidence in Egypt's government, later threatening to withhold U.S. aid, and lastly, pressing Mubarak to loosen his grip on power immediately. "We want to see free, fair and credible elections," State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday. "The sooner that can happen, the better." Critics say the U.S. is once again confusing the mechanics of democracy with democracy itself. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed similar sentiments this week when he warned that "if extremist forces are allowed to exploit democratic processes to come to power to advance anti-democratic goals – as has happened in Iran and elsewhere – the outcome will be bad for peace and bad for democracy." So far, no unified opposition leadership or clear program for change has emerged in Egypt from the anti-government protests, which have been led by secular activists. Historically the leading opposition in Egypt has been the Muslim Brotherhood, a group that favors rule by Islamic law and has been repressed by Mubarak throughout his tenure. Many young people see the former director of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, as Egypt's democratic hope, but critics say he is out of touch with Egypt's problems because he has spent so many years outside of the country. The calls for democracy inside Egypt have put the U.S. in an awkward position of having to balance its defense for human rights with its longtime ties to an authoritarian regime that has been a crucial Arab ally. In Israel, critics say the U.S. has suffered a credibility loss by shaking off Mubarak when his regime started crumbling. They say Israel will have to think twice about relying on the U.S. as it is being asked to make what could be risky territorial concessions to the Palestinians as part of a future peace agreement. "The Israeli concept is that the U.S. rushed to stab Mubarak in the back," said Eytan Gilboa, an expert on the U.S. at Bar-Ilan University. "As Israel sees it, they could have pressured Mubarak, but not in such an overt way, because the consequence could be a loss of faith in the U.S. by all pro-Western Arab states in the Middle East, and also a loss of faith in Israel," he said. Raphael Israeli, a professor emeritus of Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, echoed a widely felt perception that before the unrest erupted, the Obama administration paid only lip service to the lack of human rights in Mubarak's authoritarian regime. "If Obama were genuinely concerned with what is going on in Egypt, he should have made the same demands two years ago (when he addressed the Muslim world in Cairo) and eight years and 20 years ago. Mubarak didn't come to power yesterday." "As long as there are no problems, the oppression works," Israeli said. "If the oppression doesn't work, suddenly it becomes urgent. That's unacceptable." --------------------------------- All that unease has meant that, unlike the marvel and wonder and undercurrent of admiration the Egyptian protestors have garnered from Western journalists, Israeli newspapers have been anxious and introspective. "Can Israel only broker peace with dictators?" asked one headline in Ha'aretz, the Israeli daily newspaper. Other headlines range from the woeful – "We're on our own" - to the accusatory: "Obama's betrayal of Mubarak" and "A bullet in the back from Uncle Sam." As one anonymous Israeli official told the Washington Post, where the rest of the world sees the events as comparable to Eastern Europe in 1989, Israelis see "Teheran 1979." - Sarah Wildman, Foreign Policy Correspondent for politicsdaily.com People [in Israel] were surprised by how quickly the U.S. stepped down from supporting Mubarak. [They fear] it is sending the wrong signal to other leaders in the region . . . that are not exactly Jeffersonian democracies. - Udi Segal, diplomatic correspondent for Israel's Channel 2 news, speaking on NPR Now, it is not the role of any other country to determine Egypt's leaders. Only the Egyptian people can do that. – President Barack Obama If any of the violence is instigated by the government, it should stop immediately. – White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs I came here to tell these people to leave. The mosques were calling on people to go and support Mubarak. – Egyptian citizen Emad Fathi I was born in 1980, I've only known one president. I'm 30 years old and willing to give my life for my country and my children. I came without the permission of my husband. He might divorce me, but this is my Muslim duty. – unidentified Egyptian pro-democracy demonstrator The Muslim Brotherhood is a violent, radical group with roots in Nazism and an uncompromising commitment to end the cold peace with Israel and replace it with a hot war of destruction… Right now the Brotherhood 'are a minority,' but they are the largest and best organized minority, and they don't play by the rules of democracy, using assassination and threats of violence to coerce support. [Mohamed] ElBaradei is their perfect stalking horse - well respected, moderate and compliant. He will put together a government in which the Brotherhood begins as kingmaker and ends up as king. – Professor and (selective) civil liberties attorney Alan Dershowitz We've shown you tonight that Hamas, Code Pink - the feminist anti-war group - and the Muslim Brotherhood are all linked together. – Fox broadcast personality Glenn Beck The Obama administration should not be afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood. Living with the Muslim Brotherhood in power won't be easy, but it should not be seen as inevitably our enemy. We need not demonize nor endorse it.'' - Bruce Riedel (former CIA officer), senior scholar at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy If Obama were genuinely concerned with what is going on in Egypt, he should have made the same demands two years ago (when he addressed the Muslim world in Cairo) and eight years and 20 years ago. Mubarak didn't come to power yesterday. As long as there are no problems, the oppression works. If the oppression doesn't work, suddenly it becomes urgent. That's unacceptable. - Raphael Israeli, professor emeritus of Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of JerusalemBarack Obama's Egypt Response Slammed In Israel
Israel Tense as Egypt Slides Into Power Vacuum
Around the world, in the corridors of power and on the streets, the word is everywhere: Egypt. But perhaps nowhere is that word uttered with more trepidation, more grim uncertainty, and more mortal stress than in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Israeli leaders are concerned about preserving the 30-year cold peace with Egypt, signed by Hosni Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar El-Sadat, the leader who paid for that treaty with his life. They are concerned about what the dissolution of Egypt's government means for the future of the peace process. As Egypt's immediate neighbors to the north, Israelis are panicked that Egypt's slide into a power vacuum can only bode ill.
All that unease has meant that, unlike the marvel and wonder and undercurrent of admiration the Egyptian protestors have garnered from Western journalists, Israeli newspapers have been anxious and introspective. "Can Israel only broker peace with dictators?" asked one headline in Ha'aretz, the Israeli daily newspaper. Other headlines range from the woeful – "We're on our own" -- to the accusatory: "Obama's betrayal of Mubarak" and "A bullet in the back from Uncle Sam."
As one anonymous Israeli official told the Washington Post, where the rest of the world sees the events as comparable to Eastern Europe in 1989, Israelis see "Teheran 1979."
In other words: the potential for an Islamist foe of Israel to rise up looms large. Said Udi Segal, diplomatic correspondent for Israel's Channel 2 news, speaking on NPR Tuesday, "People [in Israel] were surprised by how quickly the U.S. stepped down from supporting Mubarak. [They fear] it is sending the wrong signal to other leaders in the region . . . that are not exactly Jeffersonian democracies." Many Israelis see this not as democracy in action, he continued, but "as riots." He, too, compared the situation to Iran. "We want to be on the right side," he said, "and, of course we share the view that everyone could enjoy freedom and democracy, but the problem is what will happen in between" the time Mubarak steps down and his successor appears.
With murmurs of regional unrest rumbling from around the Near East, coupled with a Hezbollah-backed leader in Lebanon, the fear is not surprising. The first public statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was a demand to the international community that Egypt be pressed to maintain the peace with Israel.
As though to deflect those who have begun to whisper that Israel would prefer to preserve an undemocratic, dictatorial status quo, after days of round-the-clock cabinet meetings, Prime Minister Netanyahu finally spoke out Wednesday, on the Knesset floor, echoing sentiments of American leaders.
"All those who value freedom are inspired by the calls for democratic reforms in Egypt," Netanyahu intoned. "An Egypt that will adopt these reforms will be a source of hope for the world. As much as the foundations for democracy are stronger, the foundations for peace are stronger."
Aaron David Miller, the public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars who served as an adviser to both Republicans and Democrats in the region, explained Wednesday morning on a conference call with reporters that democratic reforms may be a long time in coming – and in the meantime the region remains in flux. "This is not one regime change for another, nor is this a revolution," Miller said. "This is a multi-year or even a generational project" for change, he said.
And that means Israel is looking south, with dread. "I think Israelis will be united regardless of political views," said Miller. "This will be a glass -- not only half-empty -- but probably almost completely empty. Most Israelis will profess to see the virtues of democratic changes, and they have prided selves on being the only democracy in the region."
Despite paying lip service to belief in democracy, Israelis have great "misgivings," he explained. "The neighborhood has changed and the entire paradigm of what they have viewed as the southern anchor of security and political role in the region is in the process of becoming undone." The peace treaty with Egypt has prevented a two-front war since 1979, he said. And for that Israelis have been grateful. Egypt has also played a strong, stabilizing role in the mechanisms of the peace process.
On the peace process itself -- despite a call from Thomas Friedman to restart the talks -- Miller pronounced them moribund. "On the peace process, I am negative," said Miller, echoing an opinion he had expressed well before Cairo exploded. "The peace process, let alone any agreement on Jerusalem, security, borders, was in deep freeze before these events, and resurrecting this process now will be excruciatingly difficult and painful . . . almost inconceivable."
AMY TEIBEL 02/ 3/11 08:35 AM