I suggest in this article that America's old nemesis in the region and the world, Russia, will be the immediate beneficiary, will be inheritor of the region. Other repercussions will follow. For those you will have to read the article.
The Middle East after
"There is always the possibility that the
President Obama exuded confidence when he had his press secretary suggest that President Mubarak leave "immediately, and that means yesterday!" He was confident when he decided that democratic elections whose outcome would be fair and achieve stability was possible "even before" the constitutional date for elections in September. And he is confident in suggesting the possible inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood in a democratic government, even though anti-American, anti-Israel, because it has relatively little support at the polls. Very likely Jimmy Carter was equally confident in 1979 in his support of the student protesters in the streets of Teheran. That president also turned his back on its hapless ally of that day, the shah. Carter was likely also confident that the Islamists could be included in a democratic government because, as in 2011, they were believed too electorally weak in 1979 to affect events on the ground.
George W. Bush was always confident, as when he chose to replace Sadam's tyranny with a democracy to be the model for the region. Today his Shiite-controlled democracy is increasingly under the sway of its Shiite neighbor to the east,
Even following that debacle Bush set out three years later to introduce democracy in
And today President Obama confidently welcomes the prospect of a democratic
American crisis management over the past weeks of Egyptian protests raises questions not only regarding judgment by the present administration, but of American policy in the
1978-9, Iran: Within months of the revolution the "democratic aspirations" of the students were replaced by a theocratic counter revolution by Islamists previously considered by American policy makers to be friendly towards the United States, and electorally marginal. And those students who overthrew
2003, Iraq: President Bush ignored the warnings of the CIA and Israeli and Saudi intelligence that attacking Iraq would create a military vacuum that would leave the Arab world at risk from Iran. But, according to the president, "[i]t is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world." Bush chose to set
2008, Palestine: Once again Bush chose to ignore the warnings of leaders on the ground and insisted on full and fair elections, including Muslim Brotherhood offshoot Hamas. "After failing to anticipate Hamas's victory over Fatah… the White House… backed an armed force under Fatah strongman Muhammad Dahlan… leaving Hamas stronger than ever."
2008, Washington, DC: Several days into the protests working themselves out on the streets of Cairo today, the London Daily Telegraph disclosed that in 2008 the Bush Administration recruited an Egyptian student leader with the intention of deposing President Mubarak (see State Department memo). With or without awareness of the Bush Administration's provocateur-in-place, three years later the Obama White House sought the same outcome.
So there is a clear American policy stream at work today on the streets of
If 1979 did not represent the beginning of the end for
In mid-20th century the
There are indications that Israeli leaders are coming to terms with the problem.
To the south of
Of course there is always the possibility that the